PolicyWatchIndia

· Updated 21:33 IST

Research · Papers and studies

Research

New studies on Indian policy, from researchers in India and abroad. The finding first, then who did it.

7 to 14 Oct · 116 papers from 52 institutions · 12 IMPRI briefs listed apart · Updated 21:33 IST

Top paper · Thu 8 Oct

An average 73% decline in monitored vertebrate wildlife populations from 1970 to 2022, across 35,803 population trends

AI summaryThe Living Planet Index covers 5,790 species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish. The figure measures average population-size change; it does not mean that 73% of species went extinct or that all populations declined.

Our World in Data · The new Living Planet Index reports a 73% average decline in studied wildlife populations

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New findings

115 papers

Lead exposure contributes to more than 3.5 million deaths globally each year and urges countries to accelerate prevention

World Health Organization · Countries move to accelerate action against lead poisoning

Today

AI summaryThe organization plans to present a Global Action Plan on Lead Mitigation to the World Health Assembly in 2027 and launch practical prevention guidance that year. Its latest published assessment found fewer than half of countries had confirmed legally binding lead-paint controls.

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WELL Labs assesses Bengaluru should make its zonal drainage plan binding on land-use planning, using water-risk profiles to guide development

WELL Labs · When the City Floods and Then Goes Dry: The Case for Integrated Water and Land Planning in Bengaluru

Today

AI summaryThe article says the plan should assess flood risk, drainage capacity and groundwater status before areas open to development. Modelling in a roughly 10 km² South Bengaluru watershed suggests sponge parks could absorb stormwater and improve groundwater recharge.

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SpicyIP reviews Delhi High Court patent rulings that leave the sequence for assessing inventive step and statutory exclusions unresolved

SpicyIP · SpicyIP Tidbit: Putting the Cart Before the Horse: A Look into Esteve Pharmaceuticals vs CPD

Today

AI summaryThe analysis contrasts Esteve, where the court found the patent application lacked inventive step and did not examine further exclusions, with Kroll, where it upheld a Section 3(k) refusal without deciding novelty. It says the Patent Office manuals prescribe no assessment sequence.

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Jonathan Leape told a UK parliamentary inquiry that long-term, demand-led research partnerships can help governments deliver growth, citing an Ethiopian jobseekers system

IGC Publications · Jonathan Leape gives evidence on higher education and research partnerships to the International Development Committee

Today

AI summaryLeape, executive director of the International Growth Centre, gave oral evidence to the House of Commons International Development Committee on 13 October 2026. The evidence describes an Ethiopian labour market information system set up after IGC research that reaches 2.4 million jobseekers, 65% of them women.

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The study finds China’s earlier tax-authority collection reform reduced formal firm entry and increased informal work among non-agricultural workers

VoxDev · How to fund social insurance without pushing workers into informality

Today

AI summaryUsing staggered adoption across provinces, the study estimates an 8.4-percentage-point rise in firms making social insurance contributions and a 9.4-percentage-point rise in the informal share of non-agricultural workers. It does not evaluate China’s 2019 policy package.

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The Supreme Court held that buyback escrow release does not bar a separate inquiry into alleged securities fraud

IBC Laws · Escrow Release and Fraud Liability: The Regulatory Distinction Emerging from SEBI v. Vedanta – By Md Muneeb Hussain

Today

AI summaryThe article says a fraud finding still requires legally sufficient evidence assessed on the preponderance of probabilities. Where challenged trading data forms the basis of liability, the adjudicating authority must address the challenge with reasoned findings.

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$1.1–5.7 billion in financing requirements for five decentralised renewable-energy livelihood technologies in India

CEEW · Affordable Financing for Decentralised Renewable Energy Technologies

Today

AI summaryThe scenarios cover solar dryers, solar refrigerators, solar food processors, vertical fodder grow units and solar cold storage. The white paper identifies high upfront costs, lender unfamiliarity and a lack of standardised appraisal benchmarks as barriers to institutional credit.

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Report

National conditions chiefly explain uneven implementation of post-2008 financial reforms, while policy-development choices contributed in some cases

Financial Stability Board · G20 Implementation Monitoring Review: 2026 report

Today · Report

AI summaryThe review says legal frameworks, market structure and political capacity were the main determinants across the international reforms it examined. It recommends targeted, calibrated changes to policy development as one way to improve implementation; it does not quantify the contribution of that process.

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An inter-corporate deposit in a joint development venture was investment, not financial debt under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code

SCC Times blog · One Transaction, Many Legal Identities: Rethinking the Parent — Subsidiary Inter-Corporate Deposit

Today

AI summaryIn Ansal Housing Ltd. v. Samyak Projects (P) Ltd., the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal focused on joint participation and revenue sharing despite the advance’s 24 per cent interest, 24-month repayment term and security over project receivables.

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An Analysis of the VAT Structure in Bangladesh: The Tax Justice Perspective estimates a 15%-to-10% VAT cut could be revenue-neutral if the VAT gap falls 8.5% under optimistic assumptions

South Asia Economic Journal · An Analysis of the VAT Structure in Bangladesh: The Tax Justice Perspective

Today

AI summaryUnder more realistic elasticity assumptions, the study estimates that revenue neutrality would require a 10.6%–11.7% reduction in the VAT gap. Its analyses find VAT training significantly improves compliance by an average treatment effect of 0.535 standard deviations.

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UAE support for SME decarbonisation spans training, finance, reporting and procurement, but argues that smaller firms need simpler, sector-specific emissions rules

ORF Middle East · Positioning SMEs in the UAE’s Net-Zero Agenda

Today

AI summaryThe analysis maps existing UAE measures against an OECD policy framework and identifies limited awareness, technical expertise, finance and internal capacity as barriers. It proposes accredited training, simplified emissions reporting and low-carbon procurement preferences; these are recommendations, not adopted changes.

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The analysis argues Africa’s intra-African export share is a flawed AfCFTA gauge and proposes tracking preference use, trade finance and industrial intermediates

Brookings · Replace the intra-African trade share with a meaningful statistic about trade integration

Today

AI summaryFive data sources’ estimates for 2014–2024 had an average annual spread of about 5 percentage points around a mean near 18%; their common movement correlated −0.73 with Brent crude prices. The analysis says the export share can shift with oil prices even when regional shipments do not change.

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Presenting German respondents with both earnings and pension gender gaps increased support for reducing inequality and related policy measures

Economica · Gender inequality over the lifecycle, information provision and policy preferences

Tue 13 Oct

AI summaryIn a survey experiment with 4,000 respondents, information on either gap alone was generally insignificant for policy preferences, though it increased agreement that reducing inequality matters. Effects of the combined information were stronger among young people; the study measures stated preferences, not policy outcomes.

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A Vietnam trial found minority role-model videos briefly raised farmers’ agency beliefs but did not improve household incomes

VoxDev · Can role models uplift marginalised communities?

Tue 13 Oct

AI summaryThe randomised trial covered 803 ethnic minority households in 88 communes. The belief effect had disappeared by the third screening and at endline; neither video treatment significantly changed income or other measured household outcomes at endline. An exploratory disaster-related income result was not pre-specified and remains a hypothesis.

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Report

One extreme-weather event could cost Tamil Nadu about ₹6,000 crore, with a one-in-50-year flood posing major fiscal risks

CDRI · Single extreme weather event can make TN poorer by Rs 6,000 crore, says CDRI report

Tue 13 Oct · Report

AI summaryThe assessment estimates average annual flood losses of $84.3 million for energy infrastructure and $24.5 million for roads and bridges. It also warns that recovery costs could exceed funds readily available to the state; these are modelled estimates, not observed losses from a new event.

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Daughters-in-law in Indian joint households spend about 245 more minutes daily on home production than comparable unmarried daughters

Development Policy Review · Daughter vs. daughter‐in‐law: Kinship roles and women's time use in India

Tue 13 Oct

AI summaryThe study uses nationally representative Periodic Labour Force Survey and Time Use Survey data, comparing women within the same household while controlling for age and education. The patterns are consistent with a role for kinship position and household hierarchy, but do not establish causation.

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Section 138 cheque-bounce cases have grown despite judicial reforms, with more than 43 lakh pending nationally in December 2024

SCC Times blog · Challenges to the Judiciary? Why India’s Cheque Bounce Backlog Refuses to Budge

Tue 13 Oct

AI summaryThe analysis cites 6,50,283 pending complaints in Delhi’s district courts as of September 2025, close to half of the capital’s criminal case pendency. It argues that procedural reforms have not overcome constraints in implementation and incentives embedded in the statutory framework.

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Southeast Asia’s 2026 growth forecast rose to 4.7%, but argues energy-shock inflation is squeezing poorer households despite AI-led gains

ISEAS Fulcrum · Southeast Asian Economies Grow Amid the US-Iran War — But Inflation Pains the Poor

Tue 13 Oct

AI summaryThe Asian Development Bank’s regional forecast is up from 4.4% in December 2025; the analysis says inflation and currency pressures remain acute in poorer economies, while fuel subsidies and tax cuts can strain budgets and miss low-income households.

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High institutional-uncertainty readings coincided with nearly every major democratic shift in the countries studied over 120 years

VoxEU (CEPR) · Detecting institutional change as it unfolds: Evidence from 120 years of reporting

Tue 13 Oct

AI summaryThe column uses artificial intelligence to analyse newspaper coverage and build an index intended to detect slow-building uncertainty about core institutions. It presents the index as a possible early-warning signal, not as proof that uncertainty causes democratic change.

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Tax Foundation argues US debt-crisis timing depends on lawmakers’ willingness to cut deficits; cited studies find fiscal responsiveness may weaken near 150% of GDP

Tax Foundation · Why the US Needs a Fiscal Commission to Help Solve the Debt Crisis

Tue 13 Oct

AI summaryThe article says interest on US debt already exceeds defence spending and debt relative to GDP is approaching its historical high. It notes that the timing and form of any crisis remain uncertain, and presents the studies as historical guidance rather than a precise forecast.

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Madhya Pradesh Real Estate Appellate Tribunal upheld a ₹1 lakh penalty after the promoter advertised and allotted shops in an unregistered project

IBC Laws · M.P. Housing and Infrastructure Development Board Vs. Ashok Kumar Singh and Ors. – Madhya Pradesh REAT

Tue 13 Oct

AI summaryThe tribunal found the promoter had not produced a Completion or Occupancy Certificate to establish that construction predated the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016. It affirmed directions barring further bookings and transfers until registration; the Authority’s order was dated 21 February 2025.

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Yar Mohammed Salimulla Momin and Ors. Vs. Union Bank of India and Ors. finds the appeal over a delayed property claim fails on the incomplete record

IBC Laws · Yar Mohammed Salimulla Momin and Ors. Vs. Union Bank of India and Ors. – DRT, Mumbai

Tue 13 Oct

AI summaryThe Debt Recovery Tribunal dismissed the appeal and affirmed the Recovery Officer’s rejection of the claim under the delayed-claim proviso to Rule 11(1). The applicants had not produced the foundational applications or related sale documents in the appellate record.

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Maharashtra Real Estate Appellate Tribunal allowed an allottee’s appeal, ordering a promoter to refund ₹80,77,283 with interest and pay a ₹10 lakh penalty

IBC Laws · Manojkumar Singh Vs. Era Realtors Pvt. Ltd. – Maharashtra REAT

Tue 13 Oct

AI summaryThe tribunal held that the promoter could not demand further instalments before executing and registering the sale agreement, and that its later failure to execute the agreement and hand over possession created a fresh cause of action despite earlier consent terms.

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Brookings — Research and commentary argues that AI products designed for or marketed to children under 8 should face independent developmental assessments before reaching the market

Brookings · As AI leaders call for slowdown, children need a voice

Tue 13 Oct

AI summaryThe author says US protections address children’s data and conventional toy hazards, but not whether conversational products are developmentally appropriate. The proposed assessments would consider effects on attachment, language and play; this is an advocacy recommendation, not an adopted requirement.

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Analysis argues NATO’s southern flank must coordinate capabilities as the United States pulls back and European allies assume more defence responsibility

Brookings · A divided southern flank faces Trump 2.0 and NATO 3.0

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryThe article says southern members have raised defence spending since 2016 but remain divided by differing threat perceptions and weak coordination. It recommends regular Med9 defence-minister meetings and regional planning; these are proposals, not adopted measures.

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Tax Foundation assesses Maryland’s 3.5 percent tax on rental-car fleet purchases as business-input taxation that may compound taxes charged when vehicles are rented

Tax Foundation · Rental Cars Shouldn’t Face Another Layer of Tax

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryThe commentary says Maryland adopted the vehicle excise tax in its 2025 budget; a bipartisan repeal effort did not advance amid a state budget shortfall. It also discusses proposals in other states to tax rental-car fleet purchases.

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Megaproject appraisal overlooks political conditions and dynamic risks, arguing both should be incorporated into project analysis

Brookings · The two blind spots of megaproject appraisal

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryThe commentary identifies politics treated as a fixed constraint and risks assessed statically and separately as two blind spots. Its model, calibrated against 500 projects in 100 countries, illustrates how announcement timing relates to cost overruns and delays; the comparison does not establish causation.

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Supreme Court held urgent hearing on alleged Delhi transport restrictions and detentions, directing normal metro and rail services subject to lawful regulation

SCC Times blog · Delhi Metro closures and alleged illegal detentions during CJP protest: What did the Supreme Court say on 11 October?

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryThe Court also directed that internet access remain unhindered and movement in Delhi be ensured, subject to law-and-order requirements and traffic regulations. It found a prima facie case, issued notice and required counter-affidavits and a compliance report by 13 October 2026, without finding contempt or illegal detention.

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India may be moving toward de facto pharmaceutical data exclusivity, though no statutory regime exists and a CDSCO proposal could require repeated trials

NLSIU Scholarship Repository · Data Exclusivity Explained: Is India Introducing a Data Exclusivity Regime?

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryThe analysis says applicants seeking approval for a new drug may have to repeat clinical trials under a 2025 Central Drug Standard Control Organisation notice, rather than rely on originator data after four years with bioequivalence and bioavailability studies. Any resulting effects remain uncertain.

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Thailand’s EV incentives have advantaged imports over local combustion-car production as Japanese-brand sales stagnate and EV investment deepens

ISEAS Fulcrum · Thailand’s Car Industry in Transition: Balancing Old and New Technologies

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryThailand’s Board of Investment recorded 180 EV supply-chain projects worth $4 billion as of 3 July 2026, but average investment values were $17.5 million for batteries and energy storage and $7.6 million for critical components. The author argues for balancing support across technologies and enforcing investment commitments.

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Caribbean SIDS real GDP growth fell to 1.45% in 2001–2019, while total factor productivity contributions dropped 83%

Development Policy Review · Caribbean SIDS productivity collapse: Growth accounting evidence and policy pathways for revival

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryThe study’s growth accounting covers 15 Caribbean economies and compares 1981–2000 with 2001–2019. Average real GDP growth fell from 2.64% to 1.45%, and estimated potential growth declined from 3.3 to 1.6 percentage points.

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Brazil’s federal admissions quota modestly raised overall graduation outcomes, while equilibrium reallocations increased displacement

NBER new working papers · Affirmative Action in Centralized College Admissions Systems

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryThe study examines a policy reserving half of seats at federal institutions for racially and socioeconomically disadvantaged applicants. It estimates that reallocation displaced about 30% more students than it benefited, with non-targeted students’ losses offsetting about two-thirds of targeted students’ graduation gains.

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NBER paper finds U.S. public pension funds meet cash-flow shocks by selling equities, including when returns are negative, challenging their role as market stabilizers

NBER new working papers · When Cash Flows Turn Negative: Liquidity-Driven Selling by Pension Funds

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryUsing aggregate data on U.S. public pension funds and detailed holdings obtained through public-records requests, the study estimates that funds absorb $0.67 of each cash-flow shock through equity sales. Funds maintain low allocations to safe, liquid assets and sell across equities rather than first selling those assets.

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NBER finds randomized oversight can deter concealing AI agents when evidence survives concealment and agents cannot learn audit draws in advance

NBER new working papers · When Does Randomized Oversight Align AI Agents That Can Conceal?

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryStronger auditing can make undeterred violations harder to detect. If agents can erase evidence, deterrence instead requires lower gains from violations or costlier or fewer ways to conceal them; the paper applies these conditions to infrastructure compromises in OpenAI cybersecurity evaluations in July 2026.

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NBER working paper finds stronger state complementarities can increase aggregate persistence, while stronger action complementarities reduce it in linear-quadratic mean field games

NBER new working papers · Strategic Complementarity and Persistence in Linear-Quadratic Mean Field Games

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryThe theoretical analysis gives conditions for equilibrium existence and uniqueness and for using individual and aggregate dynamics under common shocks to identify strategic interactions and model parameters; it is not an empirical estimate.

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Bank of Japan stock purchases raised long-term rates in normal times, but lifted stock prices under yield curve control

NBER new working papers · The Impact of Central Bank Stock Purchases: Evidence from Discontinuities in Policy Rules

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryThe study uses thresholds in the Bank of Japan’s purchase rule to identify effects. After yield curve control pegged the long-term yield at 0%, rates stopped responding to purchases, while stock prices rose; the findings challenge the original inelastic-market hypothesis.

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Cross-border learning is important in semiconductor manufacturing, identifying supply-chain knowledge sharing, engineer movement and foreign investment as channels

NBER new working papers · How Knowledge Crosses Borders: Evidence from Semiconductor Manufacturing

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryThe October 2026 NBER working paper by Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Réka Juhász, Giulia Lo Forte and Jeff Thurk reports these channels in modern semiconductor manufacturing; the supplied evidence does not give estimates of their scale or effects.

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Indirect variational inference can correct approximation bias in estimates of earnings dynamics without requiring likelihood computation

NBER new working papers · Indirect Variational Inference: Applications to Earnings Dynamics

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryIn simulated and empirical applications, the method combined with flexible variational families produced reliable estimates across models with nonlinear persistence, varied transitory shocks and latent heterogeneity. The paper identifies the choice of variational posterior as crucial to estimate reliability.

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NBER new working papers assesses whether randomized controlled trials can study systemic racial discrimination, outlining possible experimental approaches and limitations

NBER new working papers · What Can (and Cannot) Be Learned about Systemic Racial Discrimination from Randomized Controlled Trials?

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryThe essay proposes a conceptual model and considers large- and small-scale trials, structural settings, information and strategic responses. It notes that other approaches may address gaps left by trials.

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West Godavari used 996.2 kg of fertilizer per hectare in 2023–24, yet had Andhra Pradesh’s lowest deviation from benchmark nutrient ratios

Foundation for Agrarian Studies · Fertilizer Use in Andhra Pradesh: Why West Godavari Matters

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryThe district consumed 191,392 tonnes of NPK nutrients, ranking fifth among Indian districts by fertilizer consumption. Its N:P:K ratio was 3.14:1.83:1; the district-level analysis identifies the pattern but does not explain its causes.

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Impact of Termination of India’s Bilateral Investment Treaties on Outward Foreign Direct Investment finds terminations led to a 40%–60% decline in India’s outward investment

South Asia Economic Journal · Impact of Termination of India’s Bilateral Investment Treaties on Outward Foreign Direct Investment

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryUsing quarterly country-wise data from 2015Q1 to 2019Q4 and a gravity model based on annual data from 2011 to 2019, the paper reports that market- and natural-resource-seeking investment was affected, while technology-seeking investment was unaffected.

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TERI assesses that India needs targeted support, not blanket subsidies, for repurposed EV batteries where temporary intervention can enable otherwise unfinanceable deployment

TERI · Policy Brief: Building India’s Market for Repurposed EV Batteries

Mon 12 Oct

AI summaryThe brief says support should build on evidence from domestic pilots and go to applications where certified batteries provide reliable service at competitive lifecycle cost but the market cannot finance deployment. Existing government programmes could act as anchor off-takers under uniform safety, performance, monitoring and recycling standards.

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The Proof of Guilt assesses Section 392, arguing a referee judge may consider any issue in an appeal but must trigger larger-bench rehearing when reversing unanimous findings

The Proof of Guilt · Guest Post: Settling the Split — The Argument for Mandatory Rehearing under Section 392

Sun 11 Oct

AI summaryIn Rakesh Kumar Gupta, the Supreme Court held that a referee judge may disagree with both judges; it referred whether the judge is limited to disputed points and must refer such conflicts to a larger bench.

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Digital consumers’ formal data rights often fail to provide effective agency, and develops the Innovation in the Digital Economy Architecture

CEPR discussion papers · DP22036 Beyond Digital Rights: An Institutional Architecture for Consumer Empowerment

Sun 11 Oct

AI summaryThe paper attributes the gap to consumers’ limited information, expertise, accountability and bargaining capacity. Its proposal combines verified personal-data control, accredited expert representation, fiduciary governance of delegated authority and collective negotiation; it is not an adopted policy.

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SFLC.in assesses MeitY’s non-binding advisory requiring platforms to exercise enhanced diligence on misleading content, warning its broad terms may encourage over-censorship of lawful speech

SFLC.in · Statement on MeitY’s Advisory to Social Media Intermediaries regarding prevention of dissemination of misinformation and other unlawful content having potential to affect public order.

Sat 10 Oct

AI summaryThe 8 October 2026 advisory asks platforms to prioritise complaints from authorised government agencies and label or contextualise manipulated or synthetic content. SFLC.in says it lacks clear agency criteria and meaningful user redress for wrongful takedowns.

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Delhi Police drone SOP lists crowd monitoring and riot control among 75 drones’ purposes, without specifying who may order flights or how long footage is kept

Internet Freedom Foundation · Built for 'Women’s safety', cleared for 'Riot Control', inside the Delhi Police drone SOP

Sat 10 Oct

AI summaryThe North-West District supplied the SOP, dated 7 October 2025, on 7 October 2026 in response to an RTI request. The document’s two supplied annexures were among five; three were withheld, including Home Ministry guidelines cited by the SOP.

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Stated floor space index poorly predicts housing capacity: a common 2,500 sq m plot yields 153–263 economically weaker section units across three states

Centre for Public Policy Research · Permitted Is Not Buildable: How FSI, Setbacks and Road-Width Rules Shape Housing Supply in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh

Sat 10 Oct

AI summaryAndhra Pradesh’s FSI of 5.0 in Amaravati’s S3 zone loses 31% of permitted floor area to height-graded setbacks and open-space rules, the study finds.

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Centre for Public Policy Research proposes an India–UAE AI corridor pairing Indian researchers with UAE capital and computing, with joint projects and contracts governing data and intellectual property

Centre for Public Policy Research · India – UAE AI Corridor: A New Model for Cooperation

Sat 10 Oct

AI summaryThe proposed model would keep researchers employed in India while they work remotely on joint projects using UAE infrastructure. The article recommends contractual safeguards for cross-border data transfers and joint ownership or access to resulting models and datasets; it reports no agreement to establish the corridor.

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Recessions concentrated among women are deeper and more persistent than those concentrated among men, with women re-entering employment more slowly after job loss

CEPR discussion papers · DP22033 This Time It's Different: The Role of Women's Employment in Recessions

Sat 10 Oct

AI summaryThe study’s household model attributes the pandemic recovery partly to expanded remote work and shifting caregiving norms, which raise women’s labor supply and men’s share of childcare. It says these changes have offsetting effects on aggregate recession dynamics.

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Foreign ideas underpin 56% of US technologies and causally shape innovation, technical direction and later county employment

CEPR discussion papers · DP22034 Foreign Giants' Broad Shoulders: The Causal Effect of Foreign Ideas on U.S. Innovation

Sat 10 Oct

AI summaryThe researchers trace technology links across 13 million patents filed from 1894 to 2024. Using historical migrant settlement to identify variation in exposure to foreign knowledge, they report that counties absorbing more ideas from an origin later have more jobs using those ideas and technologies descended from them.

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Structural inequalities may help explain why reported cross-racial tolerance coexists with persistent racial inequality in U.S. employment and contracting

Brookings · How structural inequalities are impeding Americans’ aspirations for cross-racial cooperation

Fri 9 Oct

AI summaryThe analysis says Gallup respondents reported fewer cross-racial coworkers, supervisors and clients than population shares would predict. It presents structural inequality as a possible explanation, not a demonstrated cause.

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Supreme Court allows Modern Asset to use its extinguished insolvency claim only as a set-off in arbitration with KNK Construction, not for recovery

IBC Laws · Supreme Court Allows IBC-Extinguished Claim Only as Arbitral Set-Off

Fri 9 Oct

AI summaryThe Court upheld the arbitral tribunal’s appointment and directed that the set-off apply against any amount the tribunal finds Modern Asset owes KNK Construction under their shared contract; it cannot yield payment if KNK’s claim fails.

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The median member and accession-country long-run fiscal gap at 4.7 percentage points of GDP by 2060; employment growth narrows it more than productivity growth

OECD · How large is the long-term fiscal challenge in OECD countries?

Fri 9 Oct

AI summaryThe model estimates that a 10% increase in potential output through higher employment would reduce the median gap by about 2½ percentage points of GDP, while the same increase through labour productivity would have little effect. These are illustrative scenarios, not forecasts.

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Cloud outsourcing lowers technological barriers to UK banking competition, with depositor-demand benefits larger for small and medium institutions

Mostly Economics · Outsourcing and competition in the banking sector: the rise of Cloud Service Providers

Fri 9 Oct

AI summaryThe Bank of England paper uses proprietary bank-provider contract data and a structural model of the UK deposit market. Its counterfactual estimates that lower capital requirements reduce incentives to adopt cloud services, offsetting roughly 32% of the direct welfare gain.

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European Council on Foreign Relations analysis suggests Russia’s 2026 Duma candidates with war-service backgrounds benefited from sharper increases in electoral fraud in their constituencies

European Council on Foreign Relations · Marching into the Duma: The cost of Putin’s push for war veterans in parliament

Fri 9 Oct

AI summaryThe analysis says 60 new deputies had fought in Ukraine and compares polling-station turnout and vote-share patterns to identify possible direct manipulation. It reports that in one Komi constituency, the opposition candidate narrowly led in the statistically identified “clean” polling-station core, despite the veteran candidate’s decisive official victory.

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MeitY’s October 8 advisory asks platforms to police content about public events, and argues it should be withdrawn

Internet Freedom Foundation · MeitY’s “enhanced diligence” advisory pressures platforms to police protest speech. It must be withdrawn.

Fri 9 Oct

AI summaryThe advisory asks intermediaries to identify, prevent and not promote unlawful information, label or contextualise misleading content, and prioritise complaints from authorised government agencies on public-order content. The Foundation argues the undefined “enhanced diligence” standard lacks legal authority and risks over-censorship.

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A global study finds mineral-price booms shift workers from agriculture into low-skilled services, with little average change in manufacturing employment

VoxDev · Mining booms move workers from farms to services, not factories

Fri 9 Oct

AI summaryThe analysis of 2,041 urban agglomerations across 73 countries estimates that doubling nearby mineral prices lowers agriculture’s employment share by about 1.6 percentage points and raises low-skilled services’ share by about 0.9 points. Effects were stronger in sub-Saharan African cities; population growth was comparatively modest.

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Centre for Public Policy Research argues India’s diaspora investment data miss small NRI-backed businesses: remittances record transfers, while FDI rules exclude proprietorships and partnership firms

Centre for Public Policy Research · The Missing Middle: Unmeasured Diaspora Investment in India–GCC Relations

Fri 9 Oct

AI summaryThe article says this capital is therefore unidentifiable as investment in published statistics, not absent from recorded flows. Kerala Migration Survey 2023 found 15.8 percent of remittances to migrant households went to house or shop renovation, a category that combines domestic and business spending.

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Women’s share of workers in unincorporated non-agricultural establishments rose to 27.9% in 2023–24, from 26.4% in 2010–11

Ashoka CEDA · Counted in millions, concentrated in few: Women in India’s non-agricultural informal sector

Fri 9 Oct

AI summaryThe number of female workers in these establishments, excluding construction, rose from 28.5 million in 2010–11 to 34.6 million in 2023–24. In informal manufacturing, women’s share of workers increased from 35.9% in 2011 to 46.5% in 2024.

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Most jurisdictions have not fully implemented public backstop-funding mechanisms for resolving failing banks, leaving a gap in global resolution frameworks

Financial Stability Board · Thematic review on public sector backstop funding mechanisms: Peer review report

Fri 9 Oct

AI summaryThe Financial Stability Board’s Key Attribute 6 calls for credible public funding as a last resort when a bank’s own resources or market funding are insufficient. The peer review identifies good practices and shared challenges and makes recommendations, but the evidence gives no jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction results.

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India’s pre-legislative consultation is inconsistently applied: most bills bypass it, while some consultations have short windows and unpublished comments

SCC Times blog · Parliament’s Deliberative Deficit and the Judicialisation of Democracy in India

Fri 9 Oct

AI summaryThe analysis examines the consultation process through the Transgender Persons (Protection of Rights) Amendment Act, 2026 and the Aadhaar Act, 2016, considering how legislative consultation and judicial review bear on democratic legitimacy.

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Youth mobilisation and nationalist sentiment are reshaping Nepal’s politics and contributing to a more assertive, interest-driven foreign policy

India Quarterly (ICWA) · Youth Nationalism and Political Transformation in Nepal: Implications for India–Nepal Relations

Fri 9 Oct

AI summaryThe study links discontent to youth-led protests, unemployment, labour migration and governance failures, and describes changing voter expectations around transparent, performance-based, non-partisan leadership. It characterises ties with India as gradually shifting toward more balanced, negotiated engagement, not rupture.

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Pooling returns across states can turn conditional few-factor asset-pricing models into infinite-factor models

CEPR discussion papers · DP22031 Infinite Factor Structure in Conditional Asset Pricing

Fri 9 Oct

AI summaryThe analysis says infinitely many eigenvalues diverge and, for generic expected returns, infinitely many components are priced, so no finite set of principal components spans expected returns. It also finds the maximal Sharpe ratio remains finite when conditional expected returns admit no asymptotic arbitrage.

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CEPR discussion papers review finds Fed risk-management communication has shaped policy expectations and risk premia since at least the early 1990s, beyond direct rate actions

CEPR discussion papers · DP22032 Risk Management in Monetary Policy: A Review with Asset Pricing Implications

Fri 9 Oct

AI summaryThe review draws on Federal Open Market Committee transcripts from 1976 to 2019 and traces how conditional policy tilts evolved with the Committee’s assessment of risk. It discusses their successes and challenges as central banks reconsider forward guidance; it does not establish effects for India.

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Reduced immigration and continued net domestic out-migration slowed DMV population growth in 2024–25, as international arrivals fell 44% from the prior year

Brookings · Reduced immigration and net out-migration are slowing growth in the DMV region

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryInternational immigration declined from 80,044 people in 2023–24 to 44,804 in 2024–25, accounting for most of the region’s slower growth. The DMV region continued to gain population, while net domestic migration remained negative.

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US deployment of anti-ship missiles to Japan’s Yonaguni Island, about 110 kilometres from Taiwan, in a wider discussion of regional deterrence

Hudson Institute · US Moves “Ship-Killer” Missiles Within 110 Kilometers of Taiwan as China Claims Philippines, Japan Waters

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe publisher’s description says senior fellow Ken Moriyasu discussed the deployment alongside Taiwan’s receipt of F-16V fighters and reports of US military personnel in Taiwan; it gives no deployment date or further operational details.

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Centre for the Study of the Legal Profession critiques draft Advocates Act amendments, warning a proposed fee hike to ₹22,500 could deter young lawyers

NLSIU Scholarship Repository · Comments on the Proposed Amendments to the Advocates Act, 1961

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe NLSIU centre submitted its critique to the Bar Council of India. It recommends scaled-back enrollment fees, 30% women’s reservation in State Bar Councils, junior advocate stipends and a framework for foreign lawyers and overseas citizens of India.

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Wilson Center — Insight & Analysis argues that the emerging US–China chip contest spans optical and photonic technologies, beyond conventional chipmaking

Wilson Center · The Next US–China Chip Contest Runs through the Light and Photon Layer

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe analysis says China has made photonics a national priority and highlights US strengths in signal-processing chips and lasers alongside Chinese leverage in indium phosphide substrates. It recommends a US strategy, support for non-Chinese substrate capacity, shared standards and partnerships.

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NCLT Mumbai Bench dismisses bid to reverse ₹50 lakh repayment, finding Galaxy Cloud Kitchens was not Nufuture Digital’s related party when it was paid

IBC Laws · NCLT Mumbai Rejects Rs 50 Lakh Preferential Transaction Claim Against Galaxy Cloud

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe tribunal said the May 8, 2023 payment was made more than one year before insolvency commencement, placing it outside the Section 43 look-back period for non-related-party transactions; it dismissed the application.

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Kerala’s credit-deposit ratio gap with India widened to 8 percentage points by June 2026, despite a rising state ratio

The Leap Blog · Is Kerala really credit-deficient?

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryAnalysis of six end-March State Level Bankers’ Committee returns for 2021–2026 and the quarter ending June 2026 finds credit against Kerala residents’ deposits reached 104.3 per cent. It attributes 46.6 per cent of the rise in the headline ratio to a falling non-resident share of deposits.

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High-rise fire-safety thresholds differ across Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, with developers in Kerala routinely building just below 15 metres

Centre for Public Policy Research · Fire Regulations and Urban Housing – A Comparative Analysis

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe paper reports thresholds of 15 metres in Kerala, 18.3 metres in Tamil Nadu and 24 metres in Andhra Pradesh, and says crossing them adds large fixed costs. It recommends aligning thresholds with the 2026 National Building Construction Standards and linking them to fire-service capacity.

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A 73% average decline in studied wildlife populations from 1970 to 2022, while clarifying what the global index does—and does not—measure

Our World in Data · A 73% average decline in wildlife populations: an overview of the 2026 Living Planet Index report

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe index covers 35,803 populations across mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish. The average change is not a count of animals lost or the share of populations declining; the overview says about half were declining and half stable or increasing.

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Southeast Asians’ concern about climate impacts on food availability and affordability fell in 2026, while warning that food-security deterioration remains structural

ISEAS Fulcrum · Southeast Asia’s Food-Security Worries Are Falling, But Not the Risks

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe share who were very concerned fell to 25.4 per cent from 30.2 per cent in 2024; the survey introduced a neutral response option in 2026, which may explain part of the decline in somewhat-concerned responses.

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Sustainable Futures Collaborative assesses India’s heat-health risks, vulnerability and responses, identifying gaps in coordination, data and financing for long-term resilience

Sustainable Futures Collaborative · Living with Heat in India: Heat-Health Risks, Vulnerability and Emerging Responses

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe report reviews heat exposure, health impacts, Heat Action Plans and health-system preparedness. It says plans have been prepared by 23 states, 195 districts and 64 cities, and calls for evaluating the health impacts of adaptation measures.

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Report

Professor Loukas Mistelis discussed Queen Mary arbitration surveys at CADRA’s online Summer School session on 11 August 2026

SCC Times blog · What two decades of Queen Mary surveys reveal about arbitration’s rise: Prof. Loukas Mistelis on AI and Asia at CADRA International Arbitration Summer School 2026

Thu 8 Oct · Report

AI summaryThe session covered survey findings on user preferences, arbitration costs and institutional arbitration, as well as trends affecting the future of international arbitration. Mistelis said 73 per cent of 2006 respondents preferred arbitration alone or alongside alternative dispute resolution.

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Fewer than half of large greenfield FDI projects announced in low-income countries from 2011 to 2020 were completed or remained on track

World Bank · From Announcement to Completion: Tracking Big FDI Projects in LICs

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe paper examines all such projects using publicly available company and media reports. Outcomes varied by sector and source country; reported barriers included policy, regulatory and administrative constraints, financing difficulties and investor-related challenges.

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World Bank Policy Research Working Paper estimates Uzbekistan’s market reforms could add 1.0 percentage point to annual GDP growth above baseline from 2025 to 2040

World Bank · Distributional Effects of Market-Oriented Reforms in Uzbekistan : A Macro-Micro Simulation Approach

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryUsing a computable general equilibrium–microsimulation model with 2024 household survey data, the paper estimates consumer prices could fall cumulatively by up to 19.5%. A foreign investment boost adds an estimated 0.4 percentage point to growth; welfare gains are uneven, and gender wage gaps remain largely unchanged.

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Supreme Court limits NH land-acquisition compensation claims by finality, while preserving solatium and interest claims that remained live on 28 March 2008

SCC Times blog · Acquire First, Pay Never: The Rule of Law Crisis in National Highway Land Acquisitions

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe Court rejected NHAI’s request to make its Tarsem Singh ruling prospective and later dismissed a review based on a corrected liability estimate of about ₹29,000 crore. Claims concluded before 28 March 2008 with no pending challenge cannot be reopened, the article says.

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ASPI — The Strategist assesses that Australia’s Defence could anchor green industries by qualifying low-carbon products and making early purchases when they meet military needs

ASPI · Australia is building green industries. Defence could make them strategic

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe analysis says Australia imports more than 50 billion litres of refined petroleum products annually, while domestic production meets about 20 percent of liquid-fuel demand. The procurement approach is a proposal, not adopted policy.

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South Korea’s proposed ESG mandate would phase in corporate disclosures from FY2027, while current voluntary reports show major data gaps

IEEFA · South Korea's ESG disclosure framework: A welcome mandate, but lacking urgency

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe proposal starts with KOSPI-listed firms holding consolidated assets above KRW10 trillion, with lower thresholds planned for later years; it has not been enacted. In 2025, only three of 225 reporting companies disclosed consolidated Scope 1 and 2 emissions.

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Development Policy Review review finds Indonesia’s green finance policies offer limited safeguards against social exclusion and structural inequality

Development Policy Review · Unequal shades of green: A human rights review of Indonesia's green finance policies

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe desk analysis and legal review assesses environmental rights, equitable access to green finance and protection against inequality. It finds policies focus mainly on administrative classification and formal compliance, with gaps between regulation and implementation; the finding concerns Indonesia.

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Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden combine prefunded pensions with high replacement rates and low old-age poverty while limiting long-term fiscal pressures

Bruegel · The Danes, the Dutch, the Swedes and the feasibility of walking away from pay-as-you-go pensions

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe paper says these systems accumulated assets over decades under favourable demographic and economic conditions and strong social-partner institutions. It discusses public debt-financed initial contributions of 20% to 25% of GDP as a possible faster route for EU countries with sound fiscal positions.

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Women randomly offered factory jobs in Ethiopia had more children over eight years, with fertility effects emerging after wage employment faded

CEPR discussion papers · DP22030 Female Jobs and Fertility: Long-term Experimental Evidence from Ethiopian Factories

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe experiment tracked respondents for eight years; the fertility effect appeared around three years after baseline, when the effect on wage employment had faded. The authors say the income effect may dominate the substitution effect, with credit constraints consistent with the pattern.

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A study of 17 Dutch hospital mergers finds self-employed specialists’ incomes rose 3.86%, while salaried specialists’ incomes did not change

CEPR discussion papers · DP22025 Does market power increase income inequality? The effects of hospital mergers on physicians' income.

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryUsing administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, the study reports larger gains among men, more senior doctors and those with higher pre-merger incomes. It found no significant effects on hospital expenditure or 30-day mortality, but admissions and physician numbers fell.

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VoxEU (CEPR) analysis links Danish firms’ 2023 AI adoption to slower employment growth, concentrated in exposed jobs, new hires and small firms

VoxEU (CEPR) · The adjustment of the Danish labour market to AI has begun

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe column links Denmark’s official information-technology-use survey to monthly employer–employee records, comparing firms that began using AI in 2023 with those that did not. The reported decline is relative to early adopters’ own pre-adoption employment trend; the evidence does not specify its size or establish an aggregate effect.

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Shifts in the US Supreme Court’s ideological balance move market expectations for inflation, real activity and future fiscal policy

CEPR discussion papers · DP22024 Do Judges Move Markets? Ideological Shifts in the Supreme Court and Macroeconomic Expectations

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryUsing unexpected deaths of justices as quasi-experimental shifts, the paper reports that a more conservative Court is associated with lower inflation and real-activity expectations and lower bond yields; it interprets the pattern as markets anticipating tighter fiscal policy.

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Mumbai NCLT dismisses application to reverse Nufuture Digital’s ₹50 lakh loan repayment, finding Galaxy Cloud Kitchens was not a related party

IBC Laws · Ritesh Agarwal, RP of Nufuture Digital (India) Ltd. Vs. Rupchand Paswan and Ors. – NCLT, Mumbai Bench

Thu 8 Oct

AI summaryThe payment was made on 8 May 2023, before the one-year look-back period preceding insolvency commencement on 3 October 2024. The tribunal also found the companies did not meet the statutory related-party criteria on the transaction date.

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IMPRI briefs

12 briefs

Short briefs from IMPRI, a Delhi institute. Listed apart from the papers while we decide how to treat them.